Analysis of: Russia ‘not ready for peace’ with ‘no tangible signs’ of serious engagement, EU says - Europe live
The Guardian | February 19, 2026
TL;DR
US-Russia peace talks on Ukraine proceed without Ukrainian or European control, while NATO powers escalate military involvement. The scramble over Ukraine reveals inter-imperialist competition for resources and spheres of influence, not humanitarian concern.
Analytical Focus:Contradictions Interconnections Historical Context
This live blog reveals the deepening contradictions within Western imperialism's approach to Ukraine. The EU's statement that Russia shows 'no tangible signs' of serious peace engagement occurs simultaneously with European powers participating in US-mediated Geneva talks—talks from which Ukraine itself appears increasingly marginalized. Zelenskyy's frustration reflects Ukraine's contradictory position: dependent on Western military aid yet excluded from negotiations that will determine its future. The material stakes become clear when examining the constellation of stories: Sweden's €1.2bn military aid package, Ukraine's targeted strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, and the broader scramble for Arctic resources highlighted by von der Leyen's planned Greenland visit. These aren't disconnected events but facets of a struggle over energy resources, transportation corridors, and spheres of influence that characterizes the current phase of inter-imperialist competition. The Hungarian election coverage exposes how ruling classes deploy fear of war to maintain power—Orbán's graphic campaign advertisement manufacturing consent for his pro-Russian position mirrors how Western governments manufacture consent for military escalation. Meanwhile, the UK's £589 'certificate of entitlement' for dual nationals reveals how border regimes extract surplus from working people caught between states. Throughout, ordinary people—Kyiv zoo workers burning wood to keep animals alive during blackouts, Polish citizens warned to evacuate Iran—bear the costs of great power competition they never chose.
Class Dynamics
Actors: Ukrainian working class and civilian population, Russian working class (conscripts), European ruling classes (EU, national governments), US ruling class (Trump administration), Hungarian ruling class (Orbán/Fidesz), Hungarian opposition (Tisza party), Defense industry capitalists, Energy sector capitalists, Transport companies and airlines
Beneficiaries: Defense contractors (Swedish military aid), Energy corporations positioned in post-war reconstruction, Political elites who control negotiation terms, Transport companies collecting fees from new passport requirements
Harmed Parties: Ukrainian civilians (energy blackouts, bombardment), Dual nationals paying £589 fees or facing travel disruption, Workers in both Russia and Ukraine conscripted into conflict, European working classes bearing costs of militarization
The fundamental power dynamic is between imperial powers (US, EU, Russia) competing for influence over Ukraine's territory and resources, with the Ukrainian state serving as a dependent actor unable to determine its own fate. The Trump administration has positioned itself as arbiter of negotiations, sidelining both European allies and Ukraine itself. Meanwhile, ruling classes across Europe deploy the conflict to discipline their own populations—Orbán through fear-mongering, the UK through extractive border policies.
Material Conditions
Economic Factors: Control of energy infrastructure (Russian pipelines, oil refineries), Military-industrial complex profits (€1.2bn Swedish package), Arctic resource competition (Greenland visit), Border regime extraction (£589 certificates), Energy crisis affecting Ukrainian civilians (blackouts)
The war represents a crisis of accumulation expressed territorially. Russia's attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure aim to destroy the material basis of Ukrainian economic independence. Western military aid flows primarily benefit defense industries while binding Ukraine to dependent relationships. The certificate fee for dual nationals exemplifies how states extract surplus from workers navigating borders in the era of restricted mobility.
Resources at Stake: Ukrainian agricultural land and mineral resources, Russian oil and gas infrastructure, Arctic shipping routes and resources, European energy security, Post-war reconstruction contracts
Historical Context
Precedents: Post-WWI partition of Eastern Europe among great powers, Cold War division of Europe into spheres of influence, Yugoslav Wars as post-Soviet territorial redivision, NATO expansion as Western capitalist integration of former socialist states
This conflict represents a continuation of the inter-imperialist competition temporarily suppressed by US hegemony after 1991. As Lenin analyzed in 'Imperialism,' capitalist powers periodically repartition the world according to shifting balances of economic and military strength. The current crisis emerged from the contradictions of NATO expansion, which incorporated Eastern European labor markets and resources into Western capitalism while threatening Russian capitalist interests. The Kyiv zoo director studying how Berlin and Leningrad zoos survived WWII provides an unintentional but powerful historical parallel—civilian populations again bear the costs of great power conflict.
Contradictions
Primary: The EU claims 'nothing can be decided about Ukraine without Europe at the negotiating table' while European powers participate in US-led talks that marginalize both the EU as an institution and Ukraine itself. This reveals the contradiction between European claims of independent strategic autonomy and actual subordination to US leadership.
Secondary: Ukraine must accept Western military aid to survive while this dependence limits its negotiating autonomy, Western powers claim to support Ukrainian sovereignty while treating Ukraine as an object of negotiation, Orbán uses anti-war rhetoric to support the aggressor state (Russia) while Trump endorses him, Border 'security' measures like passport requirements harm the very citizens states claim to protect
These contradictions point toward either a negotiated partition of Ukraine reflecting current military positions (benefiting Russian and Western capitals at Ukrainian workers' expense) or prolonged conflict serving defense industry accumulation. The excluded possibility—genuine Ukrainian self-determination—would require breaking dependence on both Western and Russian capital, which neither imperial bloc will permit. Popular opposition may emerge as economic costs mount across Europe.
Global Interconnections
The article's disparate stories reveal a unified system of inter-imperialist competition in crisis. The Arctic suddenly matters because climate change opens new shipping routes and resource extraction—hence von der Leyen's Greenland visit, NATO's 'Arctic Sentry' mission, and new French and Canadian consulates. Poland's warning about imminent Iran conflict connects US Middle Eastern interests to European security concerns. The asymmetry of US-Europe tourism flows (Americans flooding France while Europeans avoid the US) reflects broader tensions within the Western alliance. Most significantly, the Ukraine conflict cannot be understood apart from energy politics. Ukraine's strikes target Russian oil infrastructure; Russia targets Ukrainian energy grid; Arctic resources drive great power attention to Greenland. In each case, the control of energy—the material foundation of industrial production—drives geopolitical maneuvering. Working people in Kyiv burning wood stoves experience this as survival; capital experiences it as opportunity.
Conclusion
The fragmented nature of this live blog mirrors the fragmented consciousness that capitalist media produces—each story appears discrete when all are interconnected expressions of systemic crisis. For working people across all affected nations, the path forward requires recognizing shared interests against all ruling classes deploying war, borders, and nationalism to divide them. The Ukrainian zoo workers, the dual nationals charged £589 to enter their own country, and the conscripts on both sides have more in common with each other than with the elites negotiating their fates in Geneva. Building this internationalist consciousness against militarism—rather than choosing between competing imperialisms—represents the only genuine anti-war position.
Suggested Reading
- Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism by V.I. Lenin (1917) Lenin's analysis of how capitalist powers partition the world according to economic strength directly illuminates the current inter-imperialist competition over Ukraine's territory and resources.
- The Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein (2007) Klein's analysis of how crises are exploited for capital accumulation helps explain how defense industries and reconstruction contractors benefit from prolonged conflict.
- The New Imperialism by David Harvey (2003) Harvey's concept of accumulation by dispossession illuminates how both Russian aggression and Western 'aid' function to integrate Ukrainian resources into competing capitalist circuits.