Analysis of: Former Tory head of London council appointed Reform leader in Wales
The Guardian | February 5, 2026
TL;DR
Conservative politicians defect to Reform UK as hard-right party threatens to dominate Welsh elections, offering industrial nostalgia to deindustrialized communities. The ruling class recycles personnel between parties while workers face the same austerity under different banners.
Analytical Focus:Class Analysis Historical Context Contradictions
The appointment of former Conservative council leader Dan Thomas as Reform UK's Welsh leader reveals how bourgeois politics responds to systemic crisis—not by addressing material conditions, but by shuffling personnel between parties while maintaining class continuity. Thomas's trajectory from leading a London council to fronting a hard-right insurgency in Wales exemplifies how capital's political representatives adapt their messaging without altering their fundamental class orientation. The article documents a significant political realignment occurring against a backdrop of Welsh deindustrialization and 26 years of Labour governance that has failed to reverse economic decline. Reform UK's promises to reopen coalmines and restart Port Talbot's blast furnaces—dismissed by experts as 'technically impossible'—represent not serious industrial policy but ideological manipulation of working-class nostalgia for productive labor. This nostalgia is real and grounded in material loss: communities stripped of industry, dignity, and economic security. Yet Reform channels this legitimate grievance toward nationalist and anti-establishment rhetoric while its leadership consists of the same Conservative politicians who oversaw austerity and deindustrialization. The defection of multiple Conservative Senedd members to Reform demonstrates how easily politicians move between nominally competing parties when their class interests align. The jeering of journalists and cultivation of anti-establishment spectacle masks Reform's fundamentally establishment character. Meanwhile, the article notes that Labour and Plaid Cymru have ruled out coalition with Reform, potentially creating conditions where a party led by London Conservatives could govern Wales—a profound expression of how bourgeois democracy constrains rather than enables genuine working-class representation.
Class Dynamics
Actors: Professional political class (defecting Conservative politicians), Nigel Farage (political entrepreneur/investor class), Welsh working class (especially deindustrialized communities), Welsh Labour establishment, Media/journalists, Nathan Gill (disgraced former leader, representing corruption within political class)
Beneficiaries: Political operatives seeking career advancement through party-switching, Farage's personal brand and influence, Capital interests seeking to channel working-class discontent away from systemic critique, Opponents of devolved governance and Welsh democratic institutions
Harmed Parties: Welsh working class receiving false promises of industrial revival, Democratic accountability as politicians shift allegiances without voter mandate, Communities whose genuine grievances are exploited for right-wing mobilization
The article reveals a political class operating with remarkable autonomy from constituent accountability. Thomas moves from governing affluent Barnet to claiming to represent deindustrialized Welsh valleys; Evans defects after being sacked for suspected disloyalty. Power flows from Farage as party owner to appointed regional leaders, not from members or voters upward. The promise of 'full autonomy' on Welsh policy is granted by Farage—highlighting his personal ownership of what purports to be a democratic movement.
Material Conditions
Economic Factors: 26 years of Welsh deindustrialization under Labour governance, Closure of coal mines and steel industry decline (Port Talbot), Regional economic disparity between London/southeast and Wales, Post-industrial unemployment and precarity
The material basis for Reform's appeal lies in the destruction of productive industry in Wales. Communities built around coal and steel extraction experienced the violent restructuring of production relations under Thatcherism and its continuation under New Labour. The promise to reopen mines and steelworks speaks to a desire not merely for jobs but for the dignity of productive labor—a relationship to production that financialized capitalism has severed for millions.
Resources at Stake: Control over Welsh government and its budget, Direction of NHS Wales policy, Potential reversal of devolution powers, Political legitimacy to govern deindustrialized regions
Historical Context
Precedents: UKIP's 2016 success in Welsh Assembly elections (7 members), Thatcher's decimation of Welsh mining communities, Brexit vote patterns in deindustrialized regions, Historical absence of right-wing governance in Wales since 1850s, Recurring pattern of Conservative politicians defecting to further-right parties
This represents a continuation of neoliberalism's political crisis management. When social democratic parties fail to deliver material improvements after decades in power, capital's political representatives don't offer systemic alternatives but rather rebrand. The pattern echoes across deindustrialized regions globally: MAGA in Rust Belt America, National Rally in northern France, AfD in eastern Germany. These movements harvest the legitimate grievances produced by neoliberal governance while offering solutions that reinforce rather than challenge capital's dominance. Reform's rise in Wales fits this template precisely—a party led by London financier Farage and staffed by Conservative defectors, promising industrial revival while lacking any viable economic program.
Contradictions
Primary: Reform positions itself as anti-establishment while being led by establishment politicians (Conservative councillors, Senedd members) and a wealthy political insider, promising industrial restoration while offering technically impossible policies that cannot address deindustrialization's material causes.
Secondary: Thomas claims to return 'home' to Wales after building career in London Conservative politics, embodying the disconnect between party leadership and claimed constituency, Reform promises 'full autonomy' for Wales while opposing devolution and Welsh democratic institutions, The party attacks 26 years of Labour failure while its personnel come from the Conservative Party that initiated Welsh deindustrialization, Anti-media rhetoric at rally while depending on media coverage for political viability
These contradictions may temporarily resolve through continued scapegoating (immigrants, 20mph limits, Welsh language policies) that deflects from Reform's inability to deliver material improvement. However, if Reform gains power, the gap between promises and delivery will become acute. The more likely trajectory is that Reform serves as a vehicle for realigning Welsh politics rightward, potentially enabling Conservative return under different branding, while leaving the underlying material conditions—deindustrialization, underinvestment, regional inequality—unaddressed. The recent polling decline from 29% to 23% may indicate early erosion as contradictions become visible.
Global Interconnections
Reform UK's Welsh surge connects to the global crisis of social democratic legitimacy in deindustrialized regions. From Trump's appeal in former manufacturing centers to the collapse of traditional left parties across Europe, capital faces a recurring problem: neoliberal governance produces immiseration that delegitimizes the parties implementing it, but systemic alternatives threaten capital's interests. The solution has been fostering right-populist movements that redirect class anger toward cultural enemies while maintaining economic orthodoxy. The specific dynamics of Welsh deindustrialization connect to global capital flows—coal and steel production didn't disappear but relocated to regions with lower labor costs and weaker environmental protections. Port Talbot's closure reflects not technical necessity but capital's drive to maximize returns through geographic arbitrage. Reform's promise to restart blast furnaces without addressing why they closed reveals the ideological function of such movements: offering symbolic restoration of national productive capacity while remaining silent on the international division of labor that makes such restoration unprofitable within capitalist logic.
Conclusion
Reform's rise in Wales demonstrates both the depth of working-class alienation from establishment politics and the capacity of bourgeois democracy to absorb and redirect that alienation. The recycling of Conservative politicians into 'anti-establishment' vehicles reveals how narrow the political spectrum remains despite apparent upheaval. For Welsh workers, the choice between Labour's managed decline and Reform's impossible promises offers no path toward genuine improvement in material conditions. The task for socialist politics is to articulate how deindustrialization resulted from capitalist imperatives—not Labour incompetence or EU regulations—and to organize around demands that address production relations rather than merely personnel changes in government. Reform's contradictions will eventually manifest; the question is whether working-class organizations exist to offer coherent alternatives when they do.
Suggested Reading
- The Making of the English Working Class by E.P. Thompson (1963) Thompson's analysis of how working-class identity forms through shared experience of industrial capitalism illuminates what Welsh communities lost through deindustrialization and why nostalgia for productive labor remains politically potent.
- Prison Notebooks (Selections) by Antonio Gramsci (1935) Gramsci's concept of hegemony explains how Reform constructs consent among workers whose material interests it cannot serve, using cultural grievances and anti-establishment spectacle to build cross-class coalitions.
- Blackshirts and Reds by Michael Parenti (1997) Parenti's examination of how fascist and right-populist movements emerge from capitalist crisis while serving capital's interests directly addresses Reform's class character beneath its anti-establishment rhetoric.