Analysis of: Trump weighs strikes as he gives Iran ‘10 to 15 days’ to agree deal over nuclear programme – US politics live
The Guardian | February 20, 2026
TL;DR
Trump's Iran ultimatum and massive military buildup reveal how imperial violence serves capital's resource interests while domestic rollbacks of mercury regulations expose whose health matters. The same administration threatens war abroad while poisoning workers at home—class war operates on multiple fronts.
Analytical Focus:Contradictions Historical Context Class Analysis
This multi-story update reveals the interconnected machinery of capitalist state power operating simultaneously on domestic and imperial fronts. Trump's 10-15 day ultimatum to Iran, backed by the largest Middle East military buildup since the 2003 Iraq invasion, demonstrates how the threat of massive violence serves to discipline nations that resist integration into US-dominated capital flows. The presence of two carrier strike groups capable of 'several hundred strike sorties a day' represents an enormous deployment of social resources toward potential destruction—resources produced by working people now directed at coercing another nation. Meanwhile, the EPA's rollback of mercury regulations crystallizes the domestic class dynamics with brutal clarity. The administration explicitly frames deregulation as necessary to maintain 'baseload energy' for AI data centers—prioritizing tech capital's power demands over the neurological development of infants, particularly those in communities near coal plants. This is not incidental cruelty but structural logic: the state facilitates capital accumulation while externalizing health costs onto working-class bodies. The funding of extremist congressional candidate Jace Yarbrough by tech billionaires like Peter Thiel, alongside figures connected to secretive far-right organizations, reveals the class composition behind the current political trajectory. When a candidate openly embraces being called 'Nazi-ish' and receives endorsement from both billionaire donors and the president, we witness the consolidation of a ruling-class faction willing to dispense with liberal democratic norms that once provided ideological cover for capitalist rule. The material base—concentrated tech and finance capital—is actively constructing its preferred superstructure of authoritarian governance.
Class Dynamics
Actors: US military-industrial complex, Tech billionaires (Thiel, etc.), Coal industry and utilities, Far-right political networks, Working-class communities near coal plants, Iranian state and population, AI/data center capital
Beneficiaries: Defense contractors and weapons manufacturers, Fossil fuel industry (coal plants), Tech capital requiring cheap energy, Far-right political candidates and networks, Military brass and security state apparatus
Harmed Parties: Working-class families near coal plants, Infants and children exposed to mercury, Iranian civilian population, US taxpayers funding military operations, Environmental and public health
The state acts as executive committee for capital's most aggressive factions—tech billionaires fund extremist politicians, the military apparatus serves resource and geopolitical control, and regulatory agencies are captured to serve industry over workers. The convergence of Thiel-backed candidates, deregulation for AI energy demands, and imperial threats reveals integrated class power.
Material Conditions
Economic Factors: Soaring energy demand from AI data centers, Costs of maintaining aging coal infrastructure, Military expenditure for Middle East force projection, Iranian oil and regional resource control, Campaign finance from tech and far-right billionaires
The deregulation story explicitly names the material driver: AI expansion requires massive energy, and coal plants offer 'baseload' power. Capital's need for cheap energy production trumps the reproductive labor of raising healthy children. Military buildup represents enormous productive capacity—ships, aircraft, fuel, personnel—redirected from social needs toward imperial coercion.
Resources at Stake: Middle East oil and gas reserves, Iranian nuclear materials and technology, Diego Garcia military base access, Domestic energy production capacity, Congressional seats and political power
Historical Context
Precedents: 2003 Iraq invasion buildup, 1991 Gulf War, 2011 Libya intervention, Historical pattern of manufacturing consent for war, Reagan-era deregulation and union-busting
This represents late-stage neoliberalism's contradictions intensifying: the same logic that demands deregulation domestically requires military force internationally to maintain global capital flows. The 'greatest buildup since Iraq' echoes the WMD pretext—ultimatums designed to fail, justifying predetermined military action. The rise of openly authoritarian political figures funded by tech capital suggests a ruling-class faction abandoning liberal hegemony for naked domination as systemic crises deepen.
Contradictions
Primary: The state claims to serve 'national interest' while policies systematically harm the nation's most vulnerable (mercury exposure to infants) and risk catastrophic war—revealing 'national interest' as class interest.
Secondary: Demand for 'energy security' via deregulation creates health insecurity for workers, Military 'defense' spending on offense depletes resources for domestic needs, Democratic rhetoric alongside funding of self-described extremists, Ultimatum framing ('deal or else') forecloses genuine diplomacy
These contradictions may sharpen as war costs mount, health impacts materialize, and extremist politics alienate broader constituencies. However, without organized working-class opposition, resolution could come through intensified authoritarianism rather than progressive transformation. The consolidation of far-right billionaire-political networks suggests preparation for managing dissent.
Global Interconnections
The Iran confrontation cannot be separated from global resource competition and dollar hegemony maintenance. Diego Garcia's strategic importance—mentioned in the Chagos Islands dispute—connects British post-colonial arrangements to US force projection capacity, demonstrating how imperial infrastructure persists through formal decolonization. The seizure of Maduro mentioned casually as context for carrier movements reveals a pattern of military intervention across the Global South. Domestically, the mercury deregulation connects to global AI competition—the energy demands of training large language models and running data centers create pressure for cheap, dirty power. Working-class communities become sacrifice zones for tech capital's accumulation. The same class forces (Thiel and allies) funding authoritarian politics also drive the AI boom requiring this energy, creating an integrated system where technological 'progress' requires both environmental destruction and political reaction.
Conclusion
These developments demand analysis beyond isolated policy debates. The simultaneous threat of imperial war, environmental deregulation poisoning workers' children, and billionaire funding of openly extremist candidates represent coordinated class warfare across multiple fronts. The question is not whether any single policy is wise but whose interests the state serves. Working-class organization must connect anti-war mobilization, environmental justice, and opposition to far-right consolidation as unified struggle against capital's current offensive. The material conditions creating these crises—concentrated wealth, captured state institutions, desperate competition for resources—will not be reformed away but require fundamental transformation of production relations.
Suggested Reading
- Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism by V.I. Lenin (1917) Lenin's analysis of how capitalist competition drives imperial expansion and military rivalry directly illuminates the Iran confrontation and resource control dynamics.
- The State and Revolution by V.I. Lenin (1917) Understanding the state as instrument of class rule clarifies how the same administration serves capital through both deregulation and war preparation.
- The Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein (2007) Klein's examination of how crises enable radical policy shifts illuminates both the war threat's coercive function and domestic deregulation under crisis framing.
- Blackshirts and Reds by Michael Parenti (1997) Parenti's analysis of fascism's relationship to capitalism contextualizes the billionaire funding of openly extremist political candidates.