Analysis of: Current world order ‘dead’, Draghi warns Europe, as he outlines US and China threats – Europe live
The Guardian | February 2, 2026
TL;DR
European elites warn their 'world order is dead' as US and China reshape global power—but their proposed solution is deeper EU federation, not challenging capitalism. Workers face the costs of inter-imperialist rivalry while ruling classes debate how to maintain their competitive position.
Analytical Focus:Contradictions Historical Context Interconnections
Mario Draghi's declaration that the current world order is 'dead' represents a rare moment of candor from a ruling-class figure about the terminal crisis of post-Cold War liberal internationalism. Yet his diagnosis remains firmly within capitalist logic: the threat is not the collapsing order itself, but 'what may replace it.' This framing obscures how the order's collapse stems from its own internal contradictions—particularly the tension between globally integrated capital and nationally-organized states competing for advantage. The article reveals a ruling class scrambling to maintain European capital's position amid intensifying inter-imperialist rivalry. Draghi's call for Europe to move 'from confederation to federation' is presented as a technical governance solution, but represents an attempt to consolidate European capital into a bloc capable of competing with US and Chinese capital. The simultaneous discussions of defense integration, nuclear deterrence, and trade diversification all serve this competitive logic. Meanwhile, the material costs fall on working people: Ukrainians face -17°C temperatures with destroyed infrastructure, Greenlandic citizens report 'severe sleep problems' from US threats, and Palestinians continue to be killed despite ceasefire agreements. The ideological work in the coverage is notable: inter-imperialist competition is naturalized as inevitable, while the possibility of international working-class solidarity against all ruling classes goes unmentioned. Former General Hodges urges Europe to 'stop whining' and build military capacity, presenting militarization as common sense rather than a choice that diverts resources from social needs. The groundhog metaphor opening the liveblog inadvertently captures the real situation: working people are indeed trapped in a loop, watching ruling classes debate how to manage crises that capitalism perpetually generates.
Class Dynamics
Actors: European political and financial elites (Draghi, Kallas, Støre), US ruling class (Trump administration), Russian state and oligarchy, Chinese state-capital complex, Ukrainian working population, Greenlandic population, Palestinian civilians, European workers (implicit), Military-industrial complex figures (Hodges)
Beneficiaries: Defense industries across NATO countries, European capital seeking federation for competitive advantage, Political class managing crisis narratives, Financial elites positioning for post-order restructuring
Harmed Parties: Ukrainian civilians facing destroyed infrastructure and extreme cold, Greenlandic population experiencing psychological distress from great power threats, Palestinian civilians killed during 'ceasefire', European workers who will bear costs of militarization and austerity, Workers globally facing resource diversion to military competition
The coverage presents intra-ruling-class debates as the primary political terrain, with working populations appearing only as passive victims or abstract 'publics' to be managed. Draghi notes the EU's Greenland response 'resonated with the public'—revealing how popular sentiment is instrumentalized for elite projects rather than driving policy. The former US general telling Europeans to 'stop whining' and 'stand up' to Trump demonstrates how inter-imperialist tensions are framed as matters of national will rather than class interest.
Material Conditions
Economic Factors: Control of Arctic resources (Greenland), Critical supply chain positioning, Defense industry expansion, Energy infrastructure (Ukraine), Trade agreement leverage (EU-Israel, EU-UK), Currency and monetary policy coordination
The article reveals the material stakes beneath diplomatic language: Draghi warns of 'deindustrialization' and 'subordination,' while praising EU control over 'trade, competition, the single market, monetary policy.' These are mechanisms through which European capital extracts and accumulates value. The push for 'federation' represents capital's need for larger, more integrated markets and coordinated state power to compete globally. Ukraine's energy crisis demonstrates how infrastructure—the material basis of social reproduction—becomes a target in imperialist conflicts.
Resources at Stake: Arctic mineral and energy resources, European industrial capacity and supply chains, Military hardware contracts and defense budgets, Trade route control, Nuclear deterrence capability, Energy infrastructure in Ukraine
Historical Context
Precedents: Pre-WWI inter-imperialist rivalry leading to partition of the world, Post-WWII Bretton Woods order under US hegemony, Cold War bloc competition, 1990s 'End of History' liberal triumphalism, 2008 financial crisis exposing systemic fragility, Post-2014 renewed great power competition
Draghi's speech marks explicit ruling-class acknowledgment of a historical transition: the US-dominated post-Cold War order—characterized by neoliberal globalization under American hegemony—is giving way to multi-polar competition. This follows a pattern Lenin identified: capitalist powers periodically must redivide the world as uneven development shifts relative strength. The EU's formation itself was partly a response to this logic, creating a bloc to compete with US and later Chinese capital. The current moment represents a new phase where even allied imperialist powers (US-EU) increasingly treat each other as competitors rather than partners.
Contradictions
Primary: The contradiction between globally integrated capitalist production and nationally/regionally organized state power—capital needs global markets and supply chains, but states compete to capture the benefits of accumulation, leading to fragmentation of the very order that enabled accumulation.
Secondary: Europe's military dependence on the US contradicts its desire for autonomous foreign policy, NATO's collective security framework conflicts with individual member states' divergent interests, The EU's human rights rhetoric contradicts its material relationships with Israel and repressive regimes, Ukraine's need for peace contradicts great powers' need to use it as a proxy battlefield, Defense spending increases contradict social spending needs during economic stagnation
These contradictions are unlikely to resolve peacefully within the capitalist framework. Historical precedent suggests intensifying competition, potential for direct conflict, and attempts to export crises onto peripheral nations and working classes. The EU's push for federation represents one attempted resolution—consolidating European capital to better compete—but this requires overcoming internal contradictions between member states' capitals. The more fundamental contradiction between social production and private appropriation remains unaddressed by any ruling-class faction.
Global Interconnections
This story cannot be understood apart from global capitalist dynamics. The US threats toward Greenland connect to competition for Arctic resources unlocked by climate change—itself a product of capitalist accumulation. China's 'flooding markets' reflects its development model's need for export markets, creating overcapacity contradictions that must be exported globally. Russia's war in Ukraine is both a response to NATO expansion and an attempt to secure its position in the emerging multi-polar order. The simultaneous crises mentioned—Ukraine, Gaza, UK-Russia tensions, Belarus provocations—are not coincidental but reflect the general crisis of the post-Cold War order. The EU's internal debates about SAFE, single market access for the UK, and Israel relations all represent attempts to reconfigure alliances for the emerging period. The 400 former officials urging EU pressure on Israel while the Commission's proposal 'languishes' reveals how material interests (trade with Israel, alignment with US) override stated humanitarian values. For workers globally, these inter-imperialist rivalries mean continued militarization, resource diversion from social needs, and the risk of escalating conflicts in which working people bear all costs and receive no benefits.
Conclusion
The ruling class's admission that their 'world order is dead' creates both dangers and opportunities for working people. The danger is clear: intensifying competition between imperialist blocs historically leads to war, austerity, and repression. Workers in Ukraine, Palestine, and Greenland already experience this directly, while European and American workers face the indirect costs of militarization and economic instability. However, the very instability of the current moment also reveals the contingency of capitalist arrangements presented as natural and permanent. When Draghi warns Europe could become 'subordinated, divided, and deindustrialized,' he inadvertently describes what capitalism has imposed on the Global South for centuries. The task for working people is to resist the logic that their interests align with 'their' national or regional capital against foreign competitors, and instead build solidarity across borders against all ruling classes pursuing this destructive competition.
Suggested Reading
- Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism by V.I. Lenin (1917) Lenin's analysis of how capitalist development leads to inter-imperialist rivalry for markets and resources directly illuminates the current US-EU-China competition and the drive toward re-dividing spheres of influence.
- The New Imperialism by David Harvey (2003) Harvey's concept of 'accumulation by dispossession' and analysis of how spatial fixes resolve capitalist crises helps explain the scramble for Greenland's resources and control of supply chains.
- The State and Revolution by V.I. Lenin (1917) Lenin's analysis of the capitalist state as an instrument of class rule clarifies why EU 'federation' serves capital's interests rather than working people's, despite democratic rhetoric.