Analysis of: Food inflation forecast to fall this year after dairy, meat and vegetable oil costs drop – business live
The Guardian | January 9, 2026
This business news compilation reveals the intensifying concentration of capital across multiple sectors of the global economy. The potential $200 billion Rio Tinto-Glencore merger would create unprecedented consolidation in the mining industry, while the EU-Mercosur trade deal advances despite farmer opposition, demonstrating how capital's imperatives consistently override democratic resistance from smaller producers. The material conditions driving these developments are illuminating: falling food commodity prices benefit consumers but squeeze agricultural producers, while rising copper prices (driven partly by anticipated Trump tariffs) make mining consolidation attractive to shareholders seeking market dominance. The German stimulus package reportedly boosting factory orders, the US jobs report awaited by markets, and UK interest rate speculation all reveal how thoroughly state policy serves capital accumulation rather than worker welfare. Most striking is the contradiction between Rio Tinto's supposed environmental positioning (having divested from coal in 2018) and reports it may now retain Glencore's coal assets, reflecting what analysts describe as a 'reversal in the business and political climate' under Trump's anti-environmental agenda. This demonstrates how corporate environmental commitments remain subordinate to profitability. The Mercosur deal similarly exposes tensions between stated democratic processes and capital's structural power—Italy's reversal enabled passage despite five nations' opposition, with farmers' material interests dismissed in favor of industrial capital's access to critical raw materials like lithium.
Class Dynamics
Actors: Mining capital (Rio Tinto, Glencore, BHP shareholders), Agricultural capital (EU and South American farmers), Industrial capital (German federation of industries, automakers), Finance capital (Barclays, market analysts), State actors (EU Commission, national governments, Federal Reserve), Workers (implicitly—in mines, farms, factories), Consumers
Beneficiaries: Major mining shareholders anticipating consolidation gains, Industrial capital seeking cheaper raw materials and lithium access, Large-scale agricultural exporters in South America, Finance capital managing commodity speculation, Consumers benefiting from lower food prices
Harmed Parties: European farmers facing cheaper South American competition, Mining workers facing potential 'synergies' (job cuts), Small agricultural producers unable to compete on price, Communities dependent on coal industry (uncertain transition), Workers in sectors facing import competition
The article demonstrates capital's structural dominance over democratic processes and labor. The EU-Mercosur deal passed despite opposition from five member states, showing how majority voting mechanisms serve capital mobility over national democratic resistance. Mining consolidation proceeds based on shareholder value calculations, with workers entirely absent from the discussion. State actors (central banks, governments) appear primarily as facilitators of capital accumulation—cutting interest rates, providing stimulus, awaiting market reactions to policy.
Material Conditions
Economic Factors: Copper price increases to record levels driving mining consolidation, Food commodity price declines (dairy -4.4%, meat -1.3%, vegetable oils -0.2%), Interest rate expectations affecting bond markets and capital costs, Trump tariff threats reshaping trade calculations, German stimulus boosting domestic demand, US labor market conditions affecting Federal Reserve policy
The article reveals production organized entirely around capital accumulation. Mining consolidation aims to achieve 'synergies' (reducing labor costs) and market dominance. Agricultural production faces restructuring as trade barriers fall—EU farmers must compete with South American producers operating under different labor and environmental standards. The German stimulus demonstrates state intervention to support industrial production relations. Throughout, workers appear only implicitly as factors of production whose employment levels are market indicators rather than human concerns.
Resources at Stake: Copper reserves (critical for energy transition), Lithium deposits (essential for batteries), Coal assets (thermal and steelmaking), Iron ore production, Agricultural land and output capacity, Critical raw materials for European industry, Market share in global commodity trading
Historical Context
Precedents: Rio Tinto's 2014 rejection of Glencore merger approach, Rio's 2018 coal divestment now potentially reversed, 25 years of EU-Mercosur negotiations, BHP's failed Anglo American takeover attempt, Post-2022 commodity price volatility following Ukraine invasion, Historical pattern of mining industry consolidation waves
This reflects late capitalism's tendency toward monopolization as identified by Lenin—competition among capitals leads inexorably to consolidation and concentration. The mining mega-merger follows the historical pattern where falling profit rates in competitive markets drive consolidation to achieve economies of scale and market power. The trade deal represents ongoing neoliberal integration subordinating national agricultural sectors to global capital flows, while the potential return to coal despite climate commitments shows how capital's short-term imperatives override long-term systemic concerns.
Contradictions
Primary: The fundamental contradiction between capital's need for endless accumulation and the material limits of resources, labor, and ecological systems. Rio Tinto's potential return to coal despite environmental positioning perfectly encapsulates how profit imperatives override stated values.
Secondary: Democratic legitimacy vs. capital mobility (Mercosur passed despite five nations' opposition), Environmental commitments vs. profit maximization (coal assets retention), Consumer benefit from low prices vs. producer sustainability (farmers squeezed), Competition vs. consolidation (merger creates market dominance), National interests vs. transnational capital (trade deals override domestic producers), Employment stability vs. 'synergies' (consolidation typically means job cuts)
These contradictions will likely intensify rather than resolve. Mining consolidation will proceed if profitable, regardless of environmental rhetoric. Agricultural resistance will continue but lacks structural power against transnational capital. The contradiction between stated climate goals and coal retention may force either genuine divestment or abandonment of environmental positioning entirely. Worker resistance remains the absent factor that could disrupt these trajectories—the article's silence on labor organizing reflects capital's current dominance but not a permanent condition.
Global Interconnections
This collection of business news illustrates the thoroughly integrated nature of global capitalism. Mining consolidation connects to electric vehicle production (copper, lithium), to trade policy (Trump tariffs), to currency markets (dollar strength affecting commodity prices), and to central bank policy (interest rates affecting capital costs). The Mercosur deal links European industrial capital's need for raw materials to South American agricultural exports to small European farmers' livelihoods to consumer food prices. The interconnection between US political developments (Trump's anti-environmental stance, potential tariffs) and European business decisions (Rio's openness to coal, EU's urgency on Mercosur as 'compensation' for Trump's trade barriers) demonstrates how thoroughly capital operates transnationally while states manage the political conditions for accumulation. The waiting for US jobs data by global markets shows how American workers' employment conditions become mere signals for capital allocation decisions worldwide.
Conclusion
This business coverage reveals capital consolidation accelerating across sectors—mining, agriculture, trade—while workers remain entirely absent as conscious actors. The contradictions identified (environmental vs. profit, democracy vs. capital mobility, competition vs. monopoly) create potential openings for organized resistance, but the current correlation of forces favors capital. The key strategic insight is that these seemingly separate developments—a mining merger, a trade deal, commodity prices, interest rate speculation—are unified expressions of capital's systemic logic. Effective working-class response requires similarly systemic organization: mining workers internationally coordinating against consolidation-driven layoffs, agricultural workers across borders resisting the race to the bottom, and building solidarity that matches capital's transnational reach. The silence on labor in this reporting is itself significant—making workers visible as agents rather than factors of production remains the essential task.
Editorial Note: This analysis applies a dialectical materialist framework to news events. It represents one interpretive perspective and should not be considered objective reporting.
AI-Assisted Analysis | Confidence: 90%