US Sanctions Crush Iran, Military Threatens to Finish the Job

Analysis of: Trump says US ‘armada’ heading to Middle East as Iran death toll passes 5,000
The Guardian | January 23, 2026

TL;DR

US deploys warships to Iran as 5,000+ die in protests sparked by US sanctions—Treasury Secretary openly boasts sanctions caused the economic collapse. Washington threatens military intervention while claiming credit for destabilizing Iran's economy, revealing imperialism's dual strategy of economic warfare and armed coercion.

The Iranian crisis reveals the coordinated brutality of imperial statecraft in its most naked form. US Treasury Secretary Bessant's admission at Davos—'maximum economic sanctions worked because in December, their economy collapsed'—strips away humanitarian pretenses to expose sanctions as deliberate economic warfare against civilian populations. The death of over 5,000 Iranians becomes not a tragedy to prevent but a metric of policy success for American capital. This 'economic statecraft, no shots fired' has produced bank failures, currency collapse, and mass suffering—the preconditions Washington openly sought. The deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group alongside British RAF jets demonstrates how economic and military violence work in tandem. When sanctions destabilize but fail to produce regime change, the armada waits offshore. Trump's withdrawal from immediate military action came not from humanitarian concern but from lacking 'decisive' options for regime change—revealing that the criterion for intervention is not protecting Iranians but ensuring American hegemony. The Iranian state's brutal crackdown, killing protesters and children alike, serves Washington's narrative while the reformist government blames 'conspiracy' rather than addressing the material conditions sanctions created. The class dimensions are stark: Iranian workers and traders, driven to protest by a collapsing rial and inability to afford imports, face bullets from their own state and starvation from American policy. Meanwhile, Trump returns from Davos—the annual gathering of global capital—to announce military deployments. The protests themselves emerged from the bazaar, from petty traders experiencing the squeeze between international sanctions and domestic economic mismanagement. Their demands expanded from economic grievances to political transformation, following the classic pattern of material conditions generating political consciousness. Yet both the Iranian theocratic state and American imperialism treat these workers as pawns in geopolitical competition, not as subjects of their own liberation.

Class Dynamics

Actors: Iranian working class and petty traders (protesters), Iranian state apparatus (Revolutionary Guards, security forces), Iranian reformist bourgeoisie (represented by Pezeshkian), US imperial state (Trump administration, Treasury, Pentagon), Global financial capital (Davos attendees), Gulf state ruling classes, British state (NATO ally), Iranian children and non-participating civilians

Beneficiaries: US military-industrial complex (weapons deployments), US financial institutions (dollar hegemony reinforced), Israeli state (regional rival weakened), Global capital seeking regime change favorable to Western investment, Gulf monarchies (regional competitors to Iran)

Harmed Parties: Iranian working class facing economic collapse and state violence, Iranian children (43 killed per HRANA), Civilian bystanders (40 killed), Iranian journalists and reformist voices (suppressed), Regional populations facing potential military escalation

The article reveals a three-tier power structure: at the apex, US imperial power deploys both economic and military coercion; the Iranian state exercises brutal domestic control while remaining subordinate in the global system; at the base, Iranian workers and traders bear the costs of both imperial sanctions and state repression. Notably absent is any autonomous working-class organization—protests emerge spontaneously from material grievances but lack the institutional power to resist either domestic or foreign ruling classes. The reformist faction serves as a pressure valve, channeling discontent into 'both sides' narratives that protect the regime while acknowledging grievances.

Material Conditions

Economic Factors: Collapse of Iranian rial exchange rate, Bank failures in Iranian financial system, Central bank money printing and inflation, Dollar shortage preventing imports, US sanctions blocking international trade, Oil revenue suppression through sanctions, Import dependency for essential goods

Iran's economy remains dependent on oil exports within global capitalist markets, making it vulnerable to sanctions that block access to dollar-denominated trade. The protests began among traders—the petty bourgeoisie experiencing the squeeze between wholesale costs and consumer purchasing power collapse. The sanctions regime functions as primitive accumulation in reverse: rather than incorporating Iran into global value chains, it seeks to destroy productive capacity until political concessions emerge. The Iranian state's response—repression plus internet blackout—reveals its primary function as protecting ruling class interests (both theocratic and economic) rather than representing popular sovereignty.

Resources at Stake: Iranian oil and gas reserves, Control of Persian Gulf shipping lanes, Dollar hegemony in global trade, Military positioning in Middle East, Nuclear technology and regional power balance, Access to Iranian markets post-regime change

Historical Context

Precedents: 1953 CIA coup against Mossadegh (oil nationalization), 1979 Iranian Revolution against US-backed Shah, Iraq sanctions regime 1990-2003 (500,000+ child deaths), 2011 Arab Spring and Western intervention in Libya, Venezuela sanctions and attempted coups 2017-present, June 2025 Israel-Iran war (referenced in article)

This represents the continuation of over a century of imperial intervention in Iran, from the 1953 coup restoring Western oil access to current attempts at regime change. The pattern follows the neoliberal-era playbook: sanctions create humanitarian crisis attributed to target government's 'mismanagement,' protests emerge from genuine material grievances, and military intervention becomes 'humanitarian' necessity. The Iraq model—where sanctions killed hundreds of thousands before invasion—looms as historical template. Bessant's Davos boast echoes Madeleine Albright's infamous claim that Iraqi child deaths were 'worth it.' The current phase represents intensified inter-imperial competition, with US seeking to reassert hegemony challenged by multipolarity.

Contradictions

Primary: US claims to support Iranian protesters while its sanctions created the economic collapse causing their suffering—'economic statecraft' that kills through deprivation is celebrated while military intervention is held in reserve, revealing 'humanitarian concern' as ideological cover for regime change.

Secondary: Iranian reformist government (Pezeshkian) elected on promises of change now oversees massacre of protesters, Gulf states urged Trump to hold back despite benefiting from weakened Iran—fearing regional destabilization, Protesters demand end to government but lack alternative power structures to replace it, Sanctions intended to pressure regime instead strengthen hardliners' control, Internet blackout suppresses both protest organization and evidence of state crimes

The contradictions point toward several possible trajectories: (1) Regime consolidation through repression, with reformist faction discredited and hardliners strengthened—historically common after failed uprisings; (2) Military intervention producing Libya-style state collapse and prolonged civil conflict; (3) Negotiated settlement preserving core regime elements while offering economic relief—the 2015 nuclear deal model Trump abandoned; (4) Deepening economic crisis producing renewed, potentially more organized resistance. The absence of independent working-class organization makes revolutionary transformation unlikely in the immediate term, while the material conditions generating protest remain unresolved regardless of which ruling faction prevails.

Global Interconnections

The Iranian crisis exemplifies the contemporary mechanics of imperial control in the neoliberal era. Rather than direct colonial administration, core nations maintain dominance through dollar hegemony, sanctions regimes, and military threat—what Bessant candidly calls 'economic statecraft.' Iran's vulnerability stems from its integration into global oil markets while remaining outside Western financial architecture. The Davos setting for these announcements is significant: global capital's annual gathering becomes the venue for celebrating a nation's economic destruction as policy success. This connects to broader patterns of peripheral nation discipline. When countries resist full integration into US-led financial systems—whether Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, or Russia—sanctions function as collective punishment of working populations to generate political pressure. The pattern reproduces core-periphery relations: peripheral nations must accept subordinate integration or face economic strangulation. Military deployment serves as enforcement mechanism when economic warfare proves insufficient. Britain's immediate military contribution demonstrates how NATO functions as imperial infrastructure, with 'requests' from Gulf monarchies providing legitimizing cover. The June 2025 Israel-Iran war referenced in the article shows this isn't abstract threat but active military aggression.

Conclusion

The Iranian crisis demonstrates that humanitarian rhetoric consistently masks imperial interests—Bessant's Davos admission should be treated as definitive. For the international working class, the lesson is that neither the Iranian theocratic state nor Western imperialism offers liberation. Iranian workers face the impossible choice between a regime that shoots them and an imperial power that starves them. Genuine solidarity requires opposing both US sanctions and Iranian state repression, while recognizing that material conditions—not foreign intervention—must drive political transformation. The protesters' trajectory from economic grievance to political demands shows how consciousness develops from material struggle, but the absence of independent working-class organization leaves this consciousness vulnerable to capture by various elite factions. The broader implication: in an era of intensifying imperial competition and economic crisis, working people everywhere face ruling classes willing to deploy both domestic repression and international economic warfare to maintain control. Building international solidarity networks that can resist both forms of violence becomes essential for any emancipatory politics.

Suggested Reading

• Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism by V.I. Lenin (1917) Lenin's analysis of how advanced capitalist nations use financial control, military power, and territorial division to dominate peripheral nations directly illuminates US policy toward Iran—sanctions as finance capital's weapon, military deployment as enforcement.
• The Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein (2007) Klein's documentation of how economic crises (whether natural or manufactured) are exploited to impose political transformation maps precisely onto Bessant's admission that sanctions deliberately created Iran's economic collapse to generate political change.
• The Wretched of the Earth by Frantz Fanon (1961) Fanon's analysis of colonial violence and the psychology of liberation struggles provides framework for understanding both Iranian state repression and how imperial powers position themselves as 'liberators' while perpetuating structural violence.
• The Divide: A Brief Guide to Global Inequality by Jason Hickel (2017) Hickel's accessible account of how global economic structures maintain inequality between nations explains the mechanisms—sanctions, dollar hegemony, trade restrictions—through which the US enforces Iranian subordination.