Analysis of: G7 threatens more sanctions for Iran amid ’high level of reported deaths and injuries’ - live
The Guardian | January 15, 2026
The G7's coordinated response to Iran's brutal crackdown on protesters reveals the complex intersection of humanitarian concern, imperial competition, and economic interest that characterizes Western engagement with the Middle East. While the statement condemns the 'deliberate use of violence' against Iranian civilians—with reported death tolls exceeding 2,500—the threatened sanctions regime and potential military intervention serve multiple class interests beyond protecting Iranian workers and protesters. The immediate beneficiaries of instability include Western energy companies positioned to benefit from supply disruptions (oil prices rose 1.5% on crisis fears), defense contractors anticipating military engagement, and geopolitical actors seeking to reshape regional power dynamics. The protests themselves emerge from genuine material grievances rooted in decades of economic immiseration. As one protester wrote before his death: 'We grew up with war and hunger, our children with sanctions, power cuts, water shortage, and pollution.' This testimony reveals how both Iranian state repression and Western sanctions regimes have devastated working-class conditions. The communication blackout—forcing families to travel to borders simply to learn if relatives survived—demonstrates how the Iranian state weaponizes infrastructure against its own population while Western powers simultaneously use economic warfare that compounds civilian suffering. The involvement of figures like Reza Pahlavi, whose family's monarchical rule was itself overthrown by popular revolution, illustrates the contradictory nature of Western-backed 'opposition.' Trump's measured endorsement—Pahlavi 'seems nice' but lacks clear domestic support—reveals the cynical calculation underlying humanitarian rhetoric. Meanwhile, China's call for 'dialogue' and Turkey's opposition to military intervention reflect competing imperial interests rather than principled solidarity with Iranian workers, who remain caught between domestic authoritarianism and foreign intervention.
Class Dynamics
Actors: Iranian working class and protesters, Iranian security forces (IRGC, Basij), Iranian clerical ruling class (Khamenei regime), G7 state representatives, Western corporate interests (airlines, energy), Diaspora Iranians, Kurdish ethnic minority, Exiled monarchist opposition (Pahlavi), Regional state actors (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China)
Beneficiaries: Western energy corporations benefiting from price volatility, Defense industries anticipating military contracts, Exiled opposition figures seeking power restoration, G7 states expanding regional influence, Gulf states seeking weakened Iranian rival
Harmed Parties: Iranian working class facing state violence and economic deprivation, Kurdish minorities facing intensified repression, Families unable to retrieve or bury their dead, Workers affected by sanctions (unable to buy meat as 'luxury'), Regional populations facing potential military escalation
The crisis reveals a three-way power struggle: the Iranian theocratic state using lethal force to maintain domestic control; Western imperial powers leveraging humanitarian rhetoric to advance strategic interests; and Iranian workers caught between domestic repression and foreign intervention without genuine representation of their class interests. Unionized Lufthansa workers gain some protection (no overnight stays in conflict zones) while Iranian workers face execution for protest.
Material Conditions
Economic Factors: Western sanctions devastating Iranian economy for decades, Oil price volatility (3% drop on de-escalation news), Infrastructure collapse (power cuts, water shortages, pollution), Cost of living crisis making basic goods unaffordable, Airspace closures disrupting global trade routes, Iranian diaspora remittance networks disrupted by blackouts
Iran's economy shows characteristics of dependent peripheral capitalism—oil exports controlled by state-connected elites while workers face immiseration from both domestic extraction and imperial sanctions. The G7's selective concern emerges precisely because Iran's oil reserves and strategic position affect global commodity markets and shipping lanes. Western corporations like Lufthansa make operational decisions based on profit calculations (staff safety affecting labor costs) while framing them as security concerns.
Resources at Stake: Iranian oil and gas reserves, Strategic Middle East trade routes, Regional military positioning, Control of Persian Gulf shipping lanes, Iranian domestic markets post-potential regime change
Historical Context
Precedents: 1953 CIA-backed coup overthrowing Mosaddegh, 1979 Iranian Revolution overthrowing Western-backed Shah, 2009 Green Movement suppression, 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests, Western 'humanitarian interventions' in Iraq, Libya, Syria
This crisis reproduces the historical pattern of Western powers oscillating between supporting authoritarian regimes (the Shah) and championing 'democratic opposition' (Pahlavi) based on strategic calculation rather than genuine solidarity with working people. The reference to 1979 intelligence failures reveals persistent Western misunderstanding of Iranian society, while the promotion of monarchist restoration echoes Cold War-era preference for compliant autocrats over popular movements. The sanctions regime represents neoliberal economic warfare that punishes civilian populations while rarely destabilizing ruling elites.
Contradictions
Primary: Western powers condemn Iranian state violence while their sanctions regime has materially devastated Iranian workers for decades—the very conditions protesters cite as grievances ('sanctions, power cuts, water shortage'). This reveals the fundamental contradiction between humanitarian rhetoric and imperial economic warfare.
Secondary: G7 threatens sanctions for human rights violations while member states maintain relations with equally repressive allies (Saudi Arabia, Egypt), Trump endorses opposition figure whose family's autocratic rule sparked the 1979 revolution, Iranian regime holds mass funerals blaming US sanctions while shooting protesters, China calls for 'dialogue' while supporting authoritarian stability, Protesters seek freedom but face choice between theocratic rule and Western-backed monarchist restoration
These contradictions could develop along several paths: military intervention producing another failed state (Libya model); negotiated settlement preserving elite interests (reformist accommodation); continued repression with eventual exhaustion of protests; or—though currently lacking organized expression—independent working-class organization transcending both domestic authoritarianism and imperial intervention. The absence of revolutionary working-class leadership means the most likely outcomes serve some faction of capital rather than Iranian workers.
Global Interconnections
This crisis exemplifies how peripheral nations become battlegrounds for inter-imperial competition in the current phase of multipolar capitalism. China's 'constructive role' offer, Turkey's opposition to intervention, Saudi Arabia's cautious engagement, and G7 coordination all represent competing capitalist powers maneuvering for advantage. The information warfare dimension—with deepfake videos flooding platforms during blackouts—demonstrates how the crisis of truth accompanies the crisis of legitimacy in both authoritarian and liberal capitalist systems. The oil price movements reveal how financial markets integrate political instability into accumulation strategies, with volatility itself becoming profitable for positioned investors. Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians experience this as inability to buy meat, forced to steal family members' bodies for burial, and traveling to borders for basic communication. The global system produces these conditions while individual states—Iranian and Western alike—disclaim responsibility.
Conclusion
The Iran crisis demonstrates that neither theocratic authoritarianism nor Western imperial intervention offers genuine liberation for Iranian workers. The protesters' grievances—economic immiseration, political repression, environmental destruction—are products of both domestic ruling class extraction and international capitalist sanctions regimes. Any resolution serving working-class interests would require independent organization neither captured by monarchist restoration nor accommodated to clerical rule. The current moment's tragedy lies in the absence of such organization, leaving Iranian workers to choose between executioners while global powers calculate strategic advantage. The international working class's task remains building solidarity that transcends both 'humanitarian intervention' rhetoric and 'anti-imperialism' that excuses domestic repression.
Editorial Note: This analysis applies a dialectical materialist framework to news events. It represents one interpretive perspective and should not be considered objective reporting.
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