Analysis of: Iranian officials warn Trump not to cross ‘red line’ over threats to intervene in protests
The Guardian | January 2, 2026
The current uprising in Iran represents a convergence of internal economic collapse and external imperial maneuvering, with Iranian workers and small merchants caught between a theocratic state incapable of resolving its contradictions and a United States seeking to exploit popular grievances for geopolitical advantage. The protests, triggered by the rial's catastrophic devaluation to 1.4 million against the dollar, expose the fundamental crisis of Iran's economy—a system strangled by decades of Western sanctions while simultaneously suffering from internal corruption and mismanagement by the ruling clerical-military elite. Trump's theatrical threats to 'come to the rescue' of protesters exemplifies how imperial powers instrumentalize genuine working-class grievances. His intervention rhetoric serves multiple purposes: justifying military posturing in the region, distracting from domestic issues, and positioning the US as a defender of democratic movements while maintaining alliances with far more repressive Gulf monarchies. The Iranian government's predictable response—blaming foreign interference—serves to delegitimize authentic domestic discontent while justifying intensified repression. Both imperial and theocratic powers benefit from framing this as a geopolitical contest rather than what it fundamentally is: an economic revolt by workers, shopkeepers, and students against deteriorating material conditions. The contradiction between President Pezeshkian's initial conciliatory approach and the Revolutionary Guards' threats of harsh crackdowns reveals the internal divisions within Iran's ruling apparatus. The state cannot fully satisfy protesters' economic demands without restructuring an economy designed to benefit the clerical-military establishment, yet violent suppression risks further destabilization. Meanwhile, the nuclear question looms as both leverage and liability, with the regime attempting to negotiate from weakness while the US uses the threat of military action to compound economic pressure—pressure that falls most heavily on ordinary Iranians rather than the elite.
Class Dynamics
Actors: Iranian workers and urban poor suffering currency collapse, Small merchants and shopkeepers closing stores in protest, Students occupying campuses, Clerical-political elite (Supreme Leader, advisers), Revolutionary Guards Corps and Basij paramilitaries, Iranian reform-oriented faction (Pezeshkian government), US imperial state apparatus (Trump administration), Regional military forces (US soldiers at Al-Udeid)
Beneficiaries: US military-industrial complex through regional tension, Iranian security apparatus through expanded repression powers, Geopolitical actors seeking to weaken Iranian regional influence, Sanctions-evading economic elites with access to foreign currency
Harmed Parties: Iranian working class facing hyperinflation, Small business owners whose savings and income evaporate, Protesters facing state violence (7 killed), US service members potentially endangered by escalation, Regional populations vulnerable to military conflict
The Iranian state maintains coercive power through the Revolutionary Guards and Basij while the clerical establishment controls political legitimacy. However, this power rests on increasingly unstable economic foundations. Externally, the US wields economic warfare (sanctions) and military threat, creating a dynamic where the Iranian elite can deflect blame for economic conditions onto foreign enemies. The protesters occupy a precarious position—their legitimate grievances can be co-opted by either the reform faction seeking to maintain systemic stability or by foreign powers seeking regime change that would serve their interests rather than workers' interests.
Material Conditions
Economic Factors: Currency collapse: rial at 1.4 million to the dollar, Decades of escalating US-led economic sanctions, Systemic corruption and elite capital accumulation, Economic mismanagement by state planners, Inflation destroying working-class purchasing power, Economic isolation limiting trade and development
Iran's economy operates as a hybrid system where state and para-state organizations (particularly those connected to the Revolutionary Guards) control major industries and resources, while small producers and merchants face the full brunt of currency instability and sanctions. The clerical-military elite has constructed an economy that insulates their wealth through access to hard currency and state resources, while workers and small proprietors bear the costs of both external sanctions and internal extraction. This creates a class structure where political loyalty to the regime correlates with economic privilege.
Resources at Stake: Iranian oil and gas reserves, Nuclear enrichment capabilities as geopolitical leverage, Regional military influence and proxy networks, US military bases and assets in the Persian Gulf, Control over Iran's domestic market and labor force, Foreign currency reserves and trade relationships
Historical Context
Precedents: 2022 Mahsa Amini protests and violent state suppression, 1979 Revolution emerging from economic grievances and foreign interference, 1953 CIA-backed coup against Mossadegh, US interventions justified by 'protecting' populations (Iraq, Libya), Historical pattern of sanctions devastating civilian populations, June attack on Al-Udeid airbase showing escalation cycle
This crisis follows a consistent historical pattern where imperial powers use economic warfare to destabilize target states, then cite the resulting popular discontent as justification for further intervention. The 1953 coup demonstrated how the US and UK will overthrow democratic movements to maintain resource access; the 1979 Revolution showed how such interference generates lasting blowback. The current situation echoes the Iraq sanctions regime of the 1990s, where economic strangulation devastated ordinary people while strengthening the ruling elite's grip on remaining resources. Iran's government, like many post-colonial states, has developed a siege mentality that both reflects genuine external threats and serves to justify internal repression.
Contradictions
Primary: The Iranian state cannot resolve the economic crisis without either capitulating to Western demands (undermining its legitimacy and the elite's economic privileges) or undertaking genuine redistribution that would threaten the clerical-military class's accumulated wealth—yet continued crisis threatens regime survival.
Secondary: US claims to support Iranian protesters while maintaining sanctions that cause their suffering, Pezeshkian's reform overtures versus Revolutionary Guards' repressive imperatives, Iranian accusations of foreign interference being both propaganda deflection and partially accurate, Protesters demanding economic relief while the fundamental cause (sanctions plus elite extraction) requires systemic change, Trump's 'rescue' rhetoric versus total absence of plan for genuine democratic support
These contradictions are unlikely to resolve through either pure repression or reform within the current framework. The regime may attempt a managed decompression—offering limited economic concessions while crushing political demands—but this requires resources the sanctions-strangled economy cannot provide. External military intervention would likely unite nationalist sentiment behind the regime while devastating working-class Iranians. The most likely near-term outcome is intensified repression followed by temporary stabilization, with fundamental contradictions deferred rather than resolved. Genuine resolution would require both an end to imperial economic warfare and internal transformation of class relations—outcomes neither external nor internal elites desire.
Global Interconnections
This crisis illustrates how the global capitalist system uses economic warfare as a form of class discipline that transcends borders. US sanctions function not primarily to change regime behavior but to demonstrate the costs of defying imperial dictates—a lesson directed at populations worldwide. The Iranian elite, meanwhile, has adapted to sanctions by constructing parallel economies that benefit the politically connected while ordinary workers face hyperinflation. This mirrors patterns across the Global South where comprador elites align with external powers or develop siege economies, with working classes suffering under either arrangement. The nuclear dimension connects to broader questions of which states are permitted technological development and military deterrence. Iran's nuclear program represents an attempt to achieve the security guarantee that prevented Iraq's fate, yet pursuing it intensifies the very sanctions destroying the economy. This contradiction—between state survival and popular welfare—is inherent to peripheral states navigating a US-dominated global order. The situation also reveals how 'humanitarian' intervention rhetoric serves imperial interests: Trump's concern for protesters coexists with policies designed to immiserate them, just as previous 'liberations' in Iraq and Libya produced catastrophic outcomes for working people.
Conclusion
The Iranian crisis demonstrates that neither theocratic nationalism nor imperial 'liberation' serves working-class interests. Iranian workers face the impossible choice between a regime that extracts their labor while offering diminishing returns, and foreign powers whose 'support' means sanctions, potential bombing, and installation of client governments serving Western capital. The path forward requires international working-class solidarity that opposes both sanctions and repression—recognizing that Iranian and American workers share a common interest in opposing their respective ruling classes' militarism and economic predation. The protesters' courage in confronting state violence despite desperate conditions shows the revolutionary potential that emerges when material contradictions become unbearable; the task is ensuring this energy is not captured by forces—domestic or foreign—that would redirect it toward outcomes benefiting a different set of elites.
Editorial Note: This analysis applies a dialectical materialist framework to news events. It represents one interpretive perspective and should not be considered objective reporting.
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