Analysis of: US-Ukraine security deal waiting to be signed, says Zelenskyy – Europe live
The Guardian | January 26, 2026
TL;DR
Europe scrambles to secure energy independence and military autonomy as US unpredictability intensifies. The transatlantic imperial order fractures while Ukraine's civilians freeze, revealing whose interests drive geopolitical dealmaking.
Analytical Focus:Contradictions Historical Context Interconnections
This live blog captures a pivotal moment in the reconfiguration of transatlantic imperialism, where long-standing contradictions between European and American capital are erupting into open tension. The Hamburg Declaration's 100GW wind commitment represents European capital's material response to energy dependency—not primarily an environmental project, but a strategic pivot away from both Russian gas and American fossil fuel interests. Trump's criticism of European wind power reveals the competitive tensions between different fractions of imperial capital over energy infrastructure investments. The Ukraine situation crystallizes the human cost of great power maneuvering. While diplomats discuss security agreements and territorial concessions in Abu Dhabi, over 1,200 apartment buildings in Kyiv lack heating in sub-zero temperatures. This juxtaposition—diplomatic horse-trading above, freezing civilians below—exposes the class character of war and peace negotiations. Ukrainian workers bear the material burden of Russia's infrastructure attacks while their government negotiates from a position of dependency on external powers whose interests may not align with Ukrainian working people. The broader pattern reveals an imperial system in transition. Finland's warnings about Russian hybrid warfare, Germany's military rearmament, the EU's Russian gas ban, and the ICE incident in Minneapolis all connect to a single phenomenon: the post-Cold War liberal international order is fragmenting along multiple fault lines. European powers are being forced to develop independent military and energy capabilities precisely because American hegemony has become unpredictable. The Trump administration's insulting remarks about NATO allies' Afghanistan sacrifices—while demanding continued European alignment—exemplify the contradiction between imperial demands for subordination and the material reality of shared sacrifice.
Class Dynamics
Actors: Ukrainian civilian population, European energy capitalists, American fossil fuel interests, Russian state capital, European political elites, US state apparatus (ICE, military), Working-class immigrants in US, German military-industrial complex, Tech monopoly capital (X/Musk)
Beneficiaries: European renewable energy investors, Defense contractors (European rearmament), Geopolitical negotiators maintaining influence, Russian gas interests (during transition period), Tech platforms evading accountability
Harmed Parties: Ukrainian civilians without heating, Immigrants facing ICE enforcement, Women and children targeted by AI-generated exploitation, European and American workers funding military expansion, Journalists facing state intimidation
The article reveals multiple overlapping power hierarchies: American imperial power attempting to maintain dominance over European allies while those allies develop independent capabilities; Russian state power using energy and hybrid warfare as leverage; tech monopolies (X) resisting democratic accountability; and throughout, working-class populations bearing the material costs of decisions made by political and economic elites. The EU's muted response to the Minneapolis killing—declining to comment on an 'internal matter'—demonstrates how imperial solidarity among ruling classes transcends concern for working people.
Material Conditions
Economic Factors: Energy infrastructure control (€15bn annual Russian gas imports), Military spending increases across Europe, Tech platform monetization of harmful content, Critical undersea infrastructure vulnerability, Renewable energy investment (100GW offshore wind)
The energy transition represents a shift in which fractions of capital control the means of energy production. The Hamburg Declaration transfers investment from fossil fuel extraction to renewable infrastructure, benefiting different capitalist sectors while maintaining the fundamental relation of private ownership over essential resources. Ukraine's energy crisis reveals how infrastructure—the material basis of social reproduction—becomes a weapon of war, with civilians' basic survival subordinated to military and political calculations.
Resources at Stake: North Sea energy resources, Ukrainian territory and infrastructure, Baltic undersea cables and pipelines, Arctic resources (Greenland), Digital platform markets under EU regulation
Historical Context
Precedents: Post-WWII Marshall Plan and European reconstruction under American hegemony, 1970s energy crises and OPEC's geopolitical leverage, Post-Cold War NATO expansion and Russian containment, German post-war demilitarization and current reversal, Historical patterns of imperial competition over energy resources
We are witnessing the end of the unipolar moment that followed the Soviet collapse. The current period resembles the inter-imperial rivalries of the early 20th century, where established powers (US) face challenges from rising or resurgent competitors while attempting to maintain alliance structures that subordinate regional powers (Europe). Germany's rearmament—once unthinkable—represents a return to historical patterns of European great power politics that American hegemony had suppressed. The energy transition, while framed environmentally, follows the historical pattern of imperial powers securing independent resource access when existing arrangements become unreliable.
Contradictions
Primary: The fundamental contradiction between American demands for European subordination within the alliance structure and European capital's material need for strategic autonomy. Trump simultaneously insults European allies, criticizes their energy policies, and expects continued alignment—an unsustainable position that accelerates European independence.
Secondary: Between peace negotiations and civilian suffering (diplomacy proceeds while Ukrainians freeze), Between EU digital regulation and US tech monopoly power (Grok investigation vs. Musk's political influence), Between Italian government's far-right alignment with Trump and obligation to protect Italian citizens from US state violence, Between EU's humanitarian rhetoric and refusal to comment on Minneapolis killing as 'internal matter', Between renewable energy as climate policy and as geopolitical strategy
These contradictions point toward a multipolar reconfiguration where European powers develop greater strategic autonomy, though likely within a reformed rather than abandoned Atlantic alliance. The Ukraine conflict may be resolved through territorial compromise that reflects great power interests rather than Ukrainian self-determination. Tech regulation battles will intensify as digital sovereignty becomes a site of inter-imperial competition. The deeper contradiction—between working-class interests and elite geopolitical maneuvering—remains unresolved and may generate new forms of political opposition as material conditions deteriorate.
Global Interconnections
This article demonstrates how seemingly separate developments—Ukrainian energy crisis, North Sea wind farms, ICE violence, AI regulation, German rearmament—are interconnected manifestations of a single historical process: the restructuring of the post-Cold War imperial order. Energy, military power, digital infrastructure, and migration enforcement are all sites where this restructuring generates friction and conflict. The global dimension is crucial. Ukraine occupies a peripheral position in the capitalist world-system, its territory and resources contested by core powers. The energy transition represents competition over which imperial bloc will control the next phase of energy infrastructure. Finland's warnings about Russian hybrid warfare and Baltic security concerns reflect the geographic concentration of these tensions in Europe's eastern periphery. Meanwhile, the Minneapolis incident and EU's non-response reveal how imperial solidarity among ruling classes operates across borders—the EU will challenge American tech companies over content regulation but not American state violence against immigrants.
Conclusion
The fragmentation visible in this live blog creates both dangers and possibilities. For working people, the immediate reality is grim: Ukrainians freeze while diplomats negotiate, immigrants face state terror while international bodies stay silent, and the costs of military rearmament will be extracted from social spending. Yet contradictions also create openings. European workers have leverage as their governments seek legitimacy for military spending; Ukrainian civil society can demand that their interests, not just territorial calculations, shape peace negotiations; and the EU-US tech confrontation may create regulatory space that constrains corporate power. The task is to transform elite-managed crises into opportunities for working-class organization across borders—recognizing that neither American, European, nor Russian ruling classes offer genuine solutions to the problems their competition creates.
Suggested Reading
- Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism by V.I. Lenin (1917) Lenin's analysis of inter-imperial rivalry and the division of the world among great powers directly illuminates current US-Europe tensions and competition over energy resources and spheres of influence.
- The New Imperialism by David Harvey (2003) Harvey's concept of 'accumulation by dispossession' helps explain how energy infrastructure, territorial control, and digital platforms become sites of capitalist competition in the current period.
- The Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein (2007) Klein's analysis of how crises enable the restructuring of economies and societies applies directly to how the Ukraine war is being used to accelerate European militarization and energy transition.